Science of Sport
Scientific comment and analysis of sports and sporting performance
A minimalism/barefoot fad and inconsequential footstrikes?
Minimalism as a fad and inconsequential footstrikes?
Two articles of interest, both connected to the barefoot running/minimalist shoe debate, and I promised on Twitter that I'd give a few more detailed thoughts.
"It appears this fad is pretty much over" - minimalist shoe sales decline
The first was this article, in Runnersworld, which quotes an industry watcher as saying that the minimalist trend is over. This is based on the reported stat that in the first quarter of 2013, running shoe sales grew in the high single figures (8%, perhaps), driven largely by sales of motion control shoes (25%) and stability shoes (10% increase). This overcame a drop in the sale of minimalist shoes, which "declined in the low teens" (so let's call it a drop of 13-14%, perhaps), and which now makes up only 4% of total running shoe sales. The industry watcher concludes "it appears this fad is pretty much over".
An interesting statistic, particularly when you consider that in previous years, it was minimalist shoes that were the fastest growing segment, while the stability and motion-control categories were stagnant or falling.
So, a reversal of sorts, but one that should not be surprising, given how overhyped the barefoot movement had been post "Born to Run". Also of note is that the end of the article makes mention of a shift away from the barefoot style minimalist shoes towards more conventional shoes that are lighter and lower to the ground than in years past. This may be the lasting legacy of the 'barefoot bubble', because it has driven the realization that the bulky, heavy and excessively cushioned shoes were not necessary and probably didn't do what they purported to. The shoe industry as a whole has adjusted its paradigm, and that is certainly a good thing, in general.
The end result, once the dust settles further, is that we've been pulled more towards the middle, which is always a good place to be when it comes to the complex physiology and biomechanics of individuals. This is an oft-repeated point here on the site, I've said it too many times, but the notion that one solution would work for everyone is clearly false, and one of a few current examples of trying to swing the pendulum from one (wrong) extreme to the other equally wrong extreme (the 10,000 hours vs genes, and low-carbohydrate diet debates are the other two).
An expanding bubble and a sustainable niche
At the New Balance South African launch of their minimalist shoe in about 2009, I remember sitting in the audience, and a journalist asked the question of whether minimalism might just be a fad? My response to that was that it would not die out like a fad, because it was clear that many people were achieving great success in the barefoot shoes, and that this group, however small, would sustain the market segment. Whether or not it continued to grow at the rates it was back then would depend on a) the relative success people achieved in minimalist/barefoot shoes, and b) the strength of the scientific evidence and how well it was communicated to runners.
It's clear that now, admittedly only 4 years on, that the scientific evidence has not provided a compelling enough case to drive the companies into an even bigger push for minimalism, but has helped inform the shift to ligher, flatter traditional shoes. The evidence is, at best, ambiguous, and the field still needs a long-term, prospective injury study. The unanswered questions of 2009 remain unanswered, and a few tenuous links between loading rate and injury prevalence based on footstrike will not be enough to change the direction of a multi-billion dollar shoe industry, which has too much inertia for the anecdotes of a few (however outspoken) success stories to knock off course.
The former requirement, people's success, is a more interesting phenomenon. I do believe that the hype of minimalism, driven by the almost evangelical (and irresponsible, I have to add) volunteer sales job being done by many of those who had succeeded, spawned a movement of "barefoot/paleo" runners, many of whom were destined to fail. Why? Because they may simply not be suited to minimalist running in the first place, and perhaps this is a group who needs shoes as much as the successful minimalist runners do not.
That's probably a radical idea for some, but as much as we have heard arguments for how 'evil' the shoe industry was for advocating that everyone needed cushioning, air, gel, pro-moderater, roll bars and the like, I wonder if any have considered that when you swing the pendulum in the opposite direction and advocate barefoot/minimalism, you are doing exactly the same thing? The reality is that some people may well belong at the extremes, but many more belong somewhere in the middle, and there has been little nuance in the discussion.
Perhaps the market figures are beginning to reflect that nuance, with the realization that not everyone will succeed without the cushioning provided by traditional shoes. Just a thought. The point is, the market was expanding so rapidly that the uptake of barefoot and minimalist running was bound to claim its fair share of casualties.
The trouble is we don't know these numbers. What proportion of runners have tried and failed, compared to those who have succeeded? Given the downturn in sales of minimalist shoes, and that only 4% of the market is minimalist shoes, I'm guessing that the latter group is smaller than the former - more fail than succeed. The problem is that those who try and fail slink off to the store and go back to traditional shoes, whereas those who succeed become outspoken, leading to a large reporting bias.
I can, at this point, pre-empt the response to these injured runners and minimalism failures: "Those people obviously didn't reduce their training enough, and allow their feet and bodies to adapt to the new style". And of course, this is likely to be true in many of these instances. Running injuries are caused by running - there is a threshold for injury, and when it is exceeded, the runner breaks down.
The point is that the shoes were marketed as a way to reduce the injury risk. That is, they would change the injury threshold, so that a person could do the same training as before without injury. And yes, it would be unreasonable to expect a person to go straight from traditional shoes into minimalist shoes, maintain the same volume, and get the promoted upside. So there was an inevitable period of 'compromise' where the runner would need to drop training volumes and invest in learning the skill.
My problem with this is three-fold. First, there's no guarantee of an upside to begin with. For some individuals, it works, without question. For others, it may not, and for reasons we don't understand, some people may be incapable of running without traditional shoes, regardless of how long they take. There is little recognition of the fact that some people may be unable to learn the skill, or adapt, but the tool was never to blame, only ever its user.
Second, the sacrifice to succeed may be unreasonable. You have to ask whether it is reasonable to expect a person to reduce themselves to beginner status for months, when there is no guaranteed benefit, a very large potential downside or risk, and when the alternative - cut training volume by 20% and get stronger in the supporting muscles - might be equally effective within weeks? I don't believe this is reasonable, and so for some, it may not be a viable alternative, given questions of leverage and time.
And third, and the reason I think it has been irresponsibly promoted is because you can't advocate a change and not understand the dosage for it. A few months back, a study was published where the scientists prescribed barefoot running over 10 weeks using the guidelines of a minimalist shoe maker to the letter. The result was that 10 weeks later, every single one of the runners had indications of stress fractures in their feet, some with full blown stress fractures. To that, I recall the response was that the "advice was not conservative enough". This is the ever-shifting goal post of barefoot running advice, and to me, the point is that we just don't know who succeeds, or how much (or how little) training they require. That's why it's irresponsible for the zealous few who succeed (at most 4%, remember) to be so vocal about it. They change their names to "Barefoot XYZ" and drag everyone with them, blaming the end-user for their failures. It's just not a viable product, and sales figures support that.
That said, it's clear that there are people, perhaps many, who have succeeded and they should continue to run in minimalist shoes. I count myself as one of them, for the record, lest it seem that this is an attack on minimalism. I've nothing against the concept, just its advocacy and the obnoxious way it is pushed on people (as I feel about carbohydrate hunters). I tried every extreme, from straight barefoot (did Mount Kilimanjaro barefoot, just to check!) to flat racing shoes, and I think I've found a balance that works for me. I would not advocate it to anyone. Rather stick to education, and let people discover what works for them. As for the industry, they've recognized the shift, and responded to it with lighter, more flexible shoes, and that's definitely a good thing. For most people.
"Neither footstrike is advantageous" - a study on footstrike and injury
The second interesting piece of news was Amby Burfoot's piece on a study just done in the US Army, where researchers tracked injury prevalence and performance in 342 recruits. The Army often produce very important studies on injury, because potential confounding factors and risk factors for injury are so much easier to control effectively. The study is being presented at the American College of Sports Medicine meeting in a few weeks, and so should be in a journal soon. Then it will be possible to review more substantially, but a surface reading shows some interesting findings to discuss for now.
It found no difference in performance between the heel-strikers (87% of the group) and the non-heel strikers (that is, mid and forefoot), and no difference in injury prevalence or severity (measured as days off training, as is typically done in the field). The trend was for the non-heel strikers to report more injuries, in fact, which is interesting because the last few years have seen a rise in the "heel striking is bad" argument.
The link between barefoot running and footstrike, incidentally, is that very early on in the evolution of the barefoot running idea, it was proposed that it's not necessarily what you wear on your feet that matters, but how you land. This was based on the observation that when barefoot, most runners adopted a forefoot landing. Ergo, forefoot/midfoot is better, heel-striking to be avoided. I won't point out how circular that logic is, but I will make the following points, which I believe explains the Army study results.
First, not everyone responds the same way to a change in footwear. Some people, when running barefoot, continue to heelstrike. These people show enormously high loading rates and impact forces, and so every (admittedly theoretical) link we have with injury says that they will have increased risk of injury when barefoot.
Second, the interesting thing is that when you put these people in shoes, their loading rates and impact forces come down to the same level of a barefoot runner landing on the forefoot/midfoot. To give you some numbers, they go from about 400 BW/s to 100 BW/s. The runners who one would consider "good" barefoot runners because they land on the midfoot are at 80 - 100 BW/s. Peak ground reaction forces look similar.
The point is that shoes make a huge difference to this risk factor, and they do this for a very particular subset of runners only - it's only the runners who are heel-strikers when barefoot who see this benefit. When you put a midfoot striker in shoes, they show basically no change compared to when barefoot. And that is interesting, because it points to a benefit of shoes, at least with respect to the narrow link between kinetics (forces) and injury.
Third, and most interesting, is that in these runners, the ground reaction forces and loading rates come down despite even greater heel-striking than when barefoot. In other words, you put them in cushioned shoes, they land even further back, with a more dorsiflexed ankle, and their force profile improves relative to when barefoot. It improves so much that they are actually similar to barefoot runners, and the foot-strike doesn't matter.
We know this because we've just finished a study looking at this exact thing - a PhD student of mine, Nicholas Tam, has just submitted a paper looking at this individual variability as a key to the shoe prescription debate, and we believe it would explain why foot-strike doesn't matter in the shod, but not barefoot, condition. This, like the benefit of barefoot running, has probably been oversold.
Once Nic's first paper is published, I'll go into much more detail about what we did and found, but the key points are:
So, returning to the Army study, there are of course many factors other than footstrike related to injury. But the way that the footstrike has been overplayed as a cause is perhaps exposed by this finding, and it can be explained anyway as the possible beneficial effect of shoe cushioning.Ultimately, injuries will be caused by exceeding a threshold of adaptation, and footwear, biomechanics and factors like flexibility and muscle strength may contribute to this threshold. It can be shifted, higher or lower, but not in a manner that is yet predictable or formulaic, because it's too complex to link A to B. The Army study reveals, through the lack of a finding, that the paradigm of A to B is over-simplified, and the drop in sales of minimalist shoes further suggests that we're now seeing the pendulum settle somewhere towards the middle, away from the extremes, which do tend to embrace over-simplified paradigms and theories.Quite where this leaves us is difficult to say. It's not attractive to say "each to his own" and that we should embrace complexity and nuance. "Born to Run" sold well, in part, because of its extremism, just like the low-carb diet and the 10,000 hour concept work when they exclude every other reasonable possibility. It's go big, go alone, or go home science. It's also wrong.In the shoe debate, we still need the long-term prospective study on injuries, and I'd still argue that everyone should try "less shoe", in the sense that more flexible and lighter is probably better. At worst, it becomes a training modality. At best, a new way to run.RossThe Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas
- There is huge individual variation in the biomechanics response to barefoot running. Some people go in totally the "wrong direction" with respects to the kinetics that are supposedly linked to injury
- Those individuals, the barefoot heel-strikers who don't seem to adjust at the ankle to help absorb landing forces, may be unsuited to barefoot running, but benefit from cushioning provided by shoes, to the point that they are similar to barefoot runners or midfoot strikers, shod or not
- The footstrike doesn't affect the injury risk factors in shoes, only when barefoot
Pacing, fatigue and the brain. Lessons London taught us
Pacing, fatigue and the brain. Lessons from London
I owe you two posts, promised a few weeks ago while I was attending the London Marathon and presenting at its associated Medical Conference. Time and other work commitments prevented that, and soon I'm off to London again, this time for Sevens Rugby and another conference. More on that, in the weeks to come, but let me combine those previous two posts into one, and share some thoughts, as well as my presentation on Fatigue and the Brain from the conference.I realize I'm well off the news timelines as far as London goes, but the race, co-incidentally, did a lot to provide context to the question of pacing and the limits to human performance (that is, fatigue), so it's a lead in to the presentation which is at the bottom.London Marathon - pacing precisionFirst, London. Won by Tsegay Kebede, the time of 2:06:04 the slowest since 2007, the race was notable for an attritional second half that saw the lead change five or six times, clear breaks come back and eventually, the athlete who died least, possibly because of a stitch at around 25km which prevented him from responding to the early surges, came through to win.The story is in the 5km splits shown below. Kebede's splits are shown in blue, while those of Emmanuel Mutai, who finished second, are in red.The first 10km in London is always fast, but this year was particularly quick. The result was that even with a slight drop in pace from 10km to 20km, the split at halfway was 61:34. That's not necessarily a disaster, but it was constructed "badly" in the sense that it was a little too fast early and was produced slowing down. Interestingly enough, I spoke to one of the pacemakers at the Official after party, and he said that they were asking for the pace to be slowed, but Emmanuel Mutai was driving them to go faster. He said that a 62:00 at halfway would have been perfect.But, 61:34 it was, and then the race's ultimate slow time was created, because the pace was actually lifted. A 14:30 split (1:59:28 marathon pace, so a significant ramp up in pace) from 20km to 25km broke the race open, and from then on, it was always going to be a matter of survival. 14:49 for the next 5km is what saw the big time gaps appear, and Kebede was actually dropped, later blaming a stitch for his inability to follow that pace. That's where their lines part company in the graph above - 19 seconds was the gap at 30km, because Kebede dropped off faster and was outside the top four.At the front, Emmanuel Mutai, then Biwott and Abshero and Lilesa, and then Mutai again, all took turns in the lead, making what appeared to be breaks, but they were reeled in, despite a progressively dropping pace. When you see a lead that keeps changing even though the overall pace is getting slower and slower, then it means that leads are being established not because of breaks, but rather because of failures, and that in turn means it's a matter of time before the wheels fall off in a major way.
That happened to Lilesa, then Biwott (they lost 1:05 and 2:35 in the final 7km), but Kebede was able to hang onto something like a respectable pace over the final 7km. You'll see in the graph that from 25km to 35km, he was slower than Mutai, losing time. But from 35km to 40km he clawed some of it back, and then the big change happened in the final 2km, where Mutai really did fall apart.
Mutai's final 2.2km were run in 7:46, and that's where a lead of 28 seconds was turned into a deficit of 29 seconds by the finish line! For comparison, Priscah Jeptoo, who won the women's race, covered this segment in 7:23.So, the men really did pay for the fast early start, but more than that, it was the attack at 20km, off that fast start, that did the damage. It remains a fact that only once in history has a man run both halves in a marathon in under 62 minutes. That was Patrick Makau, who broke 62 min twice on route to his current world record. Others have run negative splits with a 61:xx second half, but the London race highlighted just how precise the pace needs to be before it becomes 'suicidal', at least for record purposes. Racing is a different story, of course.The physiology of pacing strategy, and the limit to performanceThat then leads into a discussion of pacing, fatigue and the limits to performance. At the London Marathon conference, a fellow speaker, Doug Casa, and I had some great discussions about athletics, and while we agree on many things, one that we diverged on was the possibility of a two-hour marathon. Doug firmly believes it is imminent, and that he'll see it soon (Doug also believes women will go under 4-minutes for the mile soon, which is absolutely not possible in this lifetime).My opinion is different - I told him that unless he can figure out how to cryogenically freeze himself and watch London in maybe 80 years from now, he has no hope of seeing that happen! Even then, I'm not convinced.The basis for my saying that is at least partly found in the graph above. It shows us that even the very best fail when they don't get the pacing right, and that means they are right on the limit of performance. If you consider the pace in London, you had 61:34 at halfway. That was set up by 14:23 and 14:33 splits for the first 10km. Too fast, but by how much? Perhaps 10 seconds per five kilometers, so we are talking a margin for error of about 2 seconds per kilometer being the difference between a complete blowout of the world's best runners, which reduces 2:05 runners to running 17:30 5km pace, and maintaining the pace to run something under 2:05.Now, if that is what happens when they run at 2:03 pace, and then surge to a 2:00 pace, imagine how much longer we will have to wait to see a runner capable of running every single 5km segment at 2:00 pace? It is, for now, inconceivable that anyone can run 14:30 per 5km eight times consecutively. In London 2013, that happened twice and it broke one of the best fields ever assembled into splinters.Remember, you didn't have one runner fail at 61:34 pace with a 14:30 surge. It was everyone. Maybe seven or eight of the best 15 men in the world pushed their physiology over the edge with that racing strategy, and not one was able to come through it without some damage. Kebede was the best survivor, but even he "limped" home with a 64:28 second half (and final 10km of around 32:00). A 2-hour marathon is nowhere near imminent, it's a long way away, and breaking the race down into its component paces is one way to show that.The other is to recognize that a runner who is capable of running back-to-back half marathons in 59:59 will be a guy capable of running a single half marathon in about 57 minutes. Currently, a 59 min half marathon runner can hit 62 min in a half and maintain the pace. So, until there is a 57 min half marathon runner, don't hold your breath. And of course, a 56 min half marathon runner is capable of running back-to-back 10km races in about 26:30. That is a runner who would be able to run a 10km in about 25:40. So when we start seeing 10km and 21km times drop to 25:40 and 57 minutes, then I'll agree with Doug and the other 2-hour marathon advocates!What pacing meansBack to pacing, which leads us to the question of how that precision is achieved? What physiological basis is there for such a "fragile" line between optimal and 'failure'? What is the body responding to in order to slow a runner down when the difference between holding the pace and crashing is as small as 1% too fast early on?The theory is that we pace ourselves because we are selecting the optimal exercise intensity that allows us to:
Pacing, then, is the physiological equivalent of sticking to a budget. There is a plan, one which we are not fully aware of, but which covers all aspects of physiology, every system in the body. It then manages our intensity, by adjusting how much muscle we are able to activate (we measure this as EMG, as you will see in the presentation below), so that we don't deplete reserves or accumulate limiting heat or metabolites. Doing that would result in, in order:
- use our available energy at the optimal rate, not too fast or too slow
- gain heat slowly enough that we'll finish, but not so slowly that we aren't performing at a high enough intensity
- accumulate metabolites at a low enough rate to not be overwhelmed by them
- meet oxygen requirements of muscle, brain and other tissues
- compete with other runners, the clock or whatever other motivational factors impact on performance
The presentation - pacing, performance limits and fatigueAs for the rest, they are details. Fascinating details, of course (in my biased opinion), and they're the subject of the presentation I gave in London, which you can see below. My focus is on heat, because that's a great model to illustrate the difference between a regulated system and a limited system. In exercise physiology, both exist, but understanding performance regulation is the recognition that pacing has a physiological purpose, and that we don't 'dumbly' run to the point of collapse.I also devote quite a bit of time in the talk to some really interesting studies by Amman et al, who have shown that the body is trying to defend peripheral muscle function, and that if you block Type IV afferents, you can play havoc with pacing strategies and those muscle properties.These presentations require talking, and so they may not quite make sense when being viewed like this. The gaps can always be filled, however, and hopefully this introduces the concepts of pacing and fatigue and how various factors, including motivation, competition, emotional state, and of course the various physiological inputs affect our performance limits and pacing.Here is that talk, enjoy!RossMore reading and forthcoming attractions!And, for some more reading on this, two reviews I wrote, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine:And here's that paper from St Clair Gibson et al, published just last month: Crawling to the finish lineAnd finally, as mentioned, I'm off to the UK again next week, first to join the SA Sevens team for the season ending tournament, and then at the invitation of the English Rugby Football Union for a symposium on talent ID and development. I'll share what I can, when I can.RossThe Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas
- A failed performance because we'd reach a critical level of hyperthermia, or energy depletion, or metabolite accumulation (or any other factor, depending on the context of exercise, see slides below) before the finish line. That's called a bad day out, and it happens because performance is ultimately going to be limited by one of more physiological systems. Pacing aims to ensure that this never happens
- Bodily harm. In theory, it is possible to push so far beyond those performance limits that we run ourselves into physiological trouble. The line for this is higher than it is for performance - we would fail at exercise before our bodies fail, but it does happen.
In fact, a really good opinion insight on this has just been written by pacing researchers led by Zig St Clair Gibson and Carl Foster, and it's called "Crawling to the Finish Line: Why do Endurance Runners Collapse? : Implications for Understanding of Mechanisms Underlying Pacing and Fatigue". I recommend it as a good discussion of this very topic
London 2013 Marathon: Conference, race and upcoming coverage
London 2013: Back to the roads for one of the great races, and a scientific conference
I write this from London, sitting in a hotel overlooking the Tower Bridge and the halfway mark in Sunday's London Marathon. I am here for that Marathon, at the invitation of the Marathon Medicine 2013 Conference, and will be presenting on Saturday at their annual marathon conference.
The conference programme is short, but specific to the event, and looks very interesting, so I'm looking forward to it. The programme is as follows:
FIT TO DROP: INFECTION AND IMMUNITY IN THE ENDURANCE RUNNER Professor Neil Walsh PhD, Director Extremes Research Group, School of Sport, Health and Exercise Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
EFFICACY OF POST-EXERCISE COLD WATER IMMERSION: IMPLICATIONS FOR ATHLETE RECOVERY AND ADAPTATION Dr Warren Gregson PhD, Senior Physiologist, Football Performance & Science Department, Aspire Academy, Doha, Qatar and Reader in Applied in Exercise Physiology, The Football Exchange & Research Institute for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK
RICE, PRICE OR POLICE? OPTIMAL LOADING AND ICE IN INJURY MANAGEMENT Dr Chris Bleakley PhD, Lecturer in Sports Studies, Sport and Exercise Sciences Research Institute, University of Ulster, Ulster, UK
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF RACE MEDICINEEXERTIONAL HEAT STROKE AND MASS MEDICAL FACILITIES: IMPLEMENTING EVIDENCE AND COORDINATING CARE
Dr Doug Casa PhD, Professor, Department of Kinesiology, Korey Stringer Institute, Neag School of Education, University of Connecticut, USA
FATIGUE, INVISIBLE BARRIERS, PHYSIOLOGICAL LIMITS AND PERFORMANCE: THE ROLE OF THE BRAIN IN PERFORMANCE PHYSIOLOGY Dr Ross Tucker PhD, Honorary Senior Lecturer, UCT Exercise Science and Sports Medicine Unit, and Consultant Scientist, Sports Science Institute of South Africa, SA
I will certainly put my own presentation on the website once I've given it (perhaps Monday or Tuesday, with some notes to explain it), and I'll do my best to bring you the highlights from the other speakers.
The London marathon experience - anyone offering race coverage?Speaking of, if anyone is here from the media, it would be great to meet, put a face to a name from all our interaction in the last few years, so even if I can't follow the race live, let me know and perhaps we can share a warm English beer in coming days!London 2013: Men previewAs for the race itself, as usual, London has gathered the world's best. They have nine sub-2:05 men in the race, and that doesn't even include the current Olympic Champion. Gold, silver and bronze from the Games are here, three former winners including the last three champions. The world record holder, second, fourth and sixth fastest in history are in the race, and of course Geoffrey Mutai (4th on that list) has the fastest ever recorded time, though it was in Boston with a howling tailwind.Here are the big 10:1 Wilson Kipsang KEN 2:03:42 (defending champion)2 Patrick Makau KEN 2:03:38 (world record holder)3 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 2:04:15 (world marathon majors champion)4 Ayele Abshero ETH 2:04:235 Tsegaye Kebede ETH 2:04:38 (2010 champion)6 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 2:04:40 (2011 champion)7 Feyisa Lilesa ETH 2:04:529 Stanley Biwott KEN 2:05:1211 Deressa Chimsa ETH 2:05:4212 Stephen Kiprotich UGA 2:07:20 (Olympic champion)Then the other sub-plot is the "debut" of Mo Farah in London, though he will run only to halfway which has been requested at around 61:45. That is world record schedule, though I would be surprised if it comes off.Whenever a field this strong is together, and the incentive to win is large, then the racing tends to compromise the overall pace. Last year, for instance, the pace through halfway was a decent 62:12, and then Wilson Kipsang, inspired perhaps by the crossing of Tower Bridge, attacked and dropped a 14:09 5km split which destroyed his rivals but also put paid to any chances of the record, though he held on for an incredibly impressive time of 2:04:44. The real story was the time gaps his surge created, and a strong field (London always is) was minutes behind, with the best in the world staggering home. One example was Abel Kirui, one of the only men to track Kipsang's surge, who covered the final 2.2km in 8:33 to finish sixth.The other possible scenario is that the pacemakers will set the race up perfectly, perhaps all the way to 30km, but then the games begin and nobody will want to take up a world record pace when accompanied by five or six other men. The result may be that it drops off in preparation for the final 5km.Either way, the point is, if the men race, then the record will usually (though not always) be lost in the battle. Let's hope that Sunday produces a similarly exciting battle and with fast times.The weather is often a factor. I can tell you that having arrived yesterday, I went for a run along the last few kilometers of the marathon route, and have just returned to the hotel having done the same, and the final 8km have been into a stiff wind. Unless that dies down or changes direction, it will also prevent records. Temperature wise, it's been perfect but that wind along the Thames as the race heads towards Big Ben will cost valuable time.
Regardless, with a field that strong, it will be a great race, and I look forward to bringing you more over the weekend! Right now, off to the official London Marathon Reception function.
From London,RossThe Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas
Boston Marathon 2013: Live splits, projections and commentary
Our thoughts are with everyone affected by the tragic events at the Boston Marathon
The 2013 Boston Marathon has been marred by tragic and senseless acts of violence. Below you will find our race report, which is written live and in real-time during the elite men's and women's races. During that event, we used terms that are normal for use during sporting events, but which have, in the light of the later tragedy, become insensitive and entirely inappropriate. We would like to emphasize that this post was written many hours before the tragedy, and we regret the delivery of the post by email and circulation. We have edited the below to remove those words that now may be deemed insensitive.
Our hearts and thoughts go out to the many runners, supporters, the BAA and other race and city of Boston personnel who were affected by this act of violenceA historical event has been marred by the actions of the perpetrators, but we are fully confident that the spirit of the race and the marathon will continue to unite and inspire us.
Boston 2013: Splits, projections and in-race commentary
Welcome to our coverage of the 2013 Boston Marathon.
Below you'll find splits and thoughts as the races unfolded. They were won by Ethiopia's Lelisa Desisa (2:10:22) and Kenya's Rita Jeptoo (2:26:25). Both were tactical and overall quite slow, with dramatic changes in the second half. Enjoy the race as it happened!
From 15km to 20km, the men have resembled a training group on an easy running day. The field is entirely African, with the Ethiopians most prominent at the front. Gebremariam and Lilesa are their big dangers, but Merga is also in the group of nine. So too are all the favored Kenyans.At 20km, the elite field has swelled because of the comparatively easy running. The pace really has dropped and allowed those athletes back in. This is building to an huge surge from 20 to 30km as the hills hit the field.
At 24km, Watson of Canada is leading, and the pace has been lifted as a result. The halfway split is slow, however, and projects a 2:09:48, and so we can expect a huge second half. As with the women, look for a massive negative split. I'd predict a second half in the range of 63 min, and a 2:07 to win today. Micah Kogo, making his marathon debut, is the 10km specialist and must be enjoying the way the race has developed.
Just before 30km, the men's race has been shaken up dramatically. We have helicopter shots of it so we don't know what is happening...typical. It is being reported that Dixon Chumba of Kenya who has done the damange. At the bottom of the hills, 11 men were together, and it has been thinned to two. Chumba and Desisa of Ethiopia are clear. The field is fragmented behind, but the hills may help keep them in contact.
The group has in fact reformed, at 30km, and we have six men together, with Merga just off the back. That 5km segment from 25km to 30km, taking in the Newton Hills, was covered in 15:28, but the damage was really, at least from the helicopter shot, done in about 1km.
The men have once again settled into a pretty conservative pace. The group of six are not attacking one another anymore. The final 5km will be dramatic. They really have been jogging for much of the race. We are so used to seeing paced efforts, it's almost funny to watch the shut down as they build to that surge. I just hope they show the attacks because they will be incredibly aggressive.
The 5km split from 30 to 35km were covered in 15:59, incredibly slow. Anyone bet that the final 5km could well be done in under 14 minutes?
Yes, as expected, we have missed the start of the surges in the men's race. Well done Boston Marathon TV production, excellent decision to finally get rid of the split screen at the very moment that one of the race's decisive surges came. Outstanding.
And of course, we will now wait to see all the top 10 women come in while a good men's race happens somewhere on the streets of Boston. And people wonder about the waning popularity of road running...
Right, back on it. At 40km, there are three men together. Gebremariam, Desisa and Kogo. The two favorites and the debutant with the most recent track pedigree. No attacks among the three in the last five minutes. I'm surprised that the field has been narrowed to only three at this pace, which really is slow (2:10 projected).
Desisa has it. A break with less than one kilometer to go first shed Kogo and then Gebremariam as they turned left into the final straight. Kogo recovered to get second, with Gebremariam in a cramping third place. The winning time was 2:10:21, slow for a relatively cool day given what we have become accustomed to seeing, but a refreshing tactical race.
At 20km, Caballero of Colombia is well clear of the chase pack. The commentators seem to think that her lead is potentially decisive. I'm not sure if they are trying to hype it up for the viewers, but it's very obvious that the pack have permitted her the lead. The pace from 15km to 20km has not even increased, which tells that the gap is there because the elite women don't care to keep it down and are clearly not interested. The break is clearly under control. Commentary is missing a good race.
Now Ana Felix of Portugal has assumed the lead. Similarly, she is only there by "permission" of the elite who I would expect will run the second half in between 70 and 71 minutes. Any lead less than about 4 minutes at this stage is not enough. Projected winning time at this stage is 2:28 but the race will be won in 2:25, and the winner will come from the chase pack.
Ana Felix's lead continues to grow, with 12km to run it is about 1 minute. The elite field have yet to show any desire to attack one another, perhaps waiting for the hills to end. Her lead with 10km to run will about one minute, and one would expect the top women, attacking one another, to cover that in around 33 to 34 minutes. Can Felix run a 34 and win? Time will tell. Strange that none of the chasing women have shown intent.
Felix's gap is dropping. With 7km to go it is just over 1 minute. Major intrigue, the elite field requires 10 seconds per kilometer to make the catch. The last 5km for Felix was slower (17:42, so 3:32/km), but it did include Heartbreak Hill. The real action is behind, where Jeptoo has taken the lead and is driving hard. As I expected, once the elite women woke from their slumber, the gap could fall dramatically. You can expect 3:15 to 3:20 for the elites, and so Felix's 3:32/km will not be enough.
With 5km to go, it's pretty clear that the catch will happen. The gap has been cut by almost a minute in the last 4 or 5 km.
Jeptoo has won the race between 35km and 40km with some impressive running. Having assumed the lead, she stretched it out and dropped first Cherop and then Hailu of Ethiopia. Her lead is growing all the time, thanks to a 16:56 last 5km.
The Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas
We believe in the spirit of the marathon and condemn the acts of violence in Boston
As sports fans, especially of the marathon, the events in Boston saddened and shocked us. Our thoughts are with all those runners, spectators, supporters, and others who were affected by this act of violence.
Yesterday, our race report was submitted to our email subscription service hours before the bomb blasts occurred. By the time we heard the news, the emails had already been delivered to many of your inboxes. What is normally entirely appropriate language to describe the race development suddenly became entirely inappropriate after the events at the finish, and many of you wrote to us wondering how we could get it so wrong.
It was unfortunate timing on top of already sad and unfortunate events at the race. Had we been able to stop the delivery of the post via email, we would have, however regrettably the emails had already been delivered and read.
Our apologies for what seemed like insensitive language in the race report. We hope you understand we were not being insensitive, and that the post was written and published well before the events of the day.
A historical marathon has been marred by the actions of the perpetrators, but, as passionate fans and believers in the power of sport, we are fully confident that the spirit of the race and the marathon will continue to unite and inspire.
Thank you as always for your kind support, and please continue to join us in extending our sympathies and condolences to everyone caught up in this terrible sequence of events.
Jonathan Dugas & Ross Tucker
The Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas